Thursday, July 7, 2011

HANSEN: Transparency in MMA Rankings - My Top 25 Light Heavyweights

By: Rich Hansen, MMATorch Columnist

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OK, I know I said that this week would be bantamweight week. But the simple fact is that I don't know nearly enough about the bantamweight division from 11 on down to yet do a credible job with that list. There are only so many hours in the day that I can spend researching bantamweight fights on youtube and mmalinker, so bantamweight is going to have to weight a couple of weeks. I have enough 'journalistic integrity' (bwahahahaha) to own up to that.

So it's time to rank some light heavyweights. One thing I learned while compiling this list is that while this division is solid from one through eleven or so, it gets anorexic fast. This division is becoming more shallow than people who watch the Casey Anthony trial. There are some really good prospects as you work your way through the list (Gustafsson, OSP), so by this time next year light heavyweight rankings could look much different than they do now.

Anyhoooo, this is my list for the marquee division in the sport. Feel free to pull a few arrows out of the quiver and fire away. Or maybe pull out a shield and defend this list.

Check out the divisions we've covered so far and the schedule for for upcoming divisions:

Week 1: Lightweights
Week 2: Featherweights
Week 3: Heavyweights
Week 4: Welterweights

July 12: Middleweights
July 19: Bantamweights

Light Heavyweight Rankings as of July 4, 2011

1.) Jon Jones - Jones has yet to be in any danger in his career, which is absolutely fascinating. He possesses unparalleled athleticism. People thought Machida's style was unbeatable; we were wrong. When Jones (legit) loses his first fight, it will be the upset of the year in whichever year it happens. If it happens, that is. Next fight: Quinton Jackson, September 24

2.) Mauricio Rua - Hard to believe he's both the aging veteran and the forgotten man of the division. Once the most feared man in the sport, he's still elite, but will need to come up with something new if he's ever going to topple Jones. I am so stoked for the rematch with Griffin next month, I can't even tell you. Next fight: Forrest Griffin, August 27

3.) Lyoto Machida - The 'Machida Era' may not have lived up to its potential, but that doesn't mean there isn't more greatness in store for Machida. I don't think he can beat Jones, but at least he has a style that will make Jones have to think his way to victory. That or Jones will rush in, take him down, and splatter his brains onto the canvas. Next fight: TBA

4.) Rashad Evans - Sat out 15 months in order to fight for the title, but once Jones needed extra time to rehab his thumb, Evans suddenly couldn't wait any longer to fight. Who's ducking whom, homey? If he loses to Phil Davis, Rashad Evans will officially go down as the worst decision maker in the history of man. Next fight: Phil Davis, August 6

5.) Quinton Jackson - Capable of being one of the most dynamic fighters in the world, Rampage seems resigned to finishing out his career as a one-dimensional power puncher. And that's a shame, because he might have the tools to give Jon Jones the biggest test of his young career. Next fight: Jon Jones, September 24

6.) Dan Henderson - Honestly, I think Henderson is better than Jackson, but Jackson did beat him heads up at UFC 75. Both guys are fantastic wrestlers who rely on their insane punching power, but that style has served Henderson better than it has served Jackson recently. I'll be in Chicago for Henderson vs. Emelianenko, YAY ME! Next fight: Fedor Emelianenko, July 30

7.) Forrest Griffin - Griffin is the biggest enigma in this division, at least in my eyes. He seems both warm and surly; huge but lacking power; smart but preferring to brawl. I think I like the guy, and his style, but I'm never 100% sure about that. I can say that his fight with Shogun is the August fight I am anticipating the most. Next fight: Mauricio Rua, August 27

8.) Phil Davis - The next big thing? We'll know in less than five weeks when he faces a potentially rusty, and potentially unmotivated, Rashad Evans. Davis comes to the sport with great wrestling credentials, but has worked on his submission grappling more than his boxing, endearing himself to me more than had he gone the typical wrestle-boxer route (see Bader, Ryan). Next fight: Rashad Evans, August 6

9.) Gegard Mousasi - A one time mancrush of mine, I filed for divorce once he cheated on me by not even pretending to give a darn about defensive wrestling. He's about as good as it gets in this division standing, but if you can't defend a takedown, there's always a glass ceiling that you won't break through. Next fight: Hiroshi Izumi, July 16

10.) Rich Franklin - I never know what to make of Rich Franklin. His reign as UFC MW champion is less impressive than people seem to remember. He's 2-2 at 195 lbs. (aka, Franklinweight). He's 2-2 since returning to LHW at UFC 88. He hasn't won two fights in a row since beating Travis Lutter and Matt Hamill in 2008. But I still consider him an all-time great. Why is that? I'm not denigrating him, I'm legitimately curious. Next fight: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, August 6

11.) Antonio Rogerio Nogueira - A guy whose current career arc kind of rivals Franklin's. Might not be as good historically as we perceive him to be. He's not likely to ever sniff a title shot, but he's a big enough name to be booked into big fights. I'm glad that win or lose against Franklin, he won't be wrestle-humped to a third straight defeat. Next fight: Rich Franklin, August 6

12.) Rafael Cavalcante - And now we're into the area where everyone is as good as everyone else. How good is Feijao? Damned if I know. His best win is over King Mo, whose best win is over Mousasi, whose best win (at 205) is over Babalu Sobral who isn't a top 25 guy. So subjectively, I just think Feijao is better than the next tier of UFC guys on this list. Next fight: TBA

13.) Muhammed Lawal - A serious prospect, King Mo unquestionably has top 10 talent and a serious wrestling pedigree. Sometimes it's hard to get past the flash and self-promotion to really realize. Hasn't fought since getting KO'd by Feijao last year. His fight in September against Roger Gracie will be his first since that loss, and since damaging his knee. Next fight: Roger Gracie, September 10

14.) Vladimir Matyushenko - After winning two uninspiring decisions over mediocre fighters upon returning to the UFC in 2009, and then getting lambasted by Jon Jones, the Janitor turned a lot of heads with convincing back to back finishes over Alexandre Ferreira and Jason Brilz. If he beats Alexander Gustafsson next month, let's challenge history and book him against Tito next. Next fight: Alexander Gustafsson, August 6

15.) Alexander Gustafsson - I think Matyushenko is going to be in for a world of hurt when he fights Gustafsson, but Gustafsson doesn't have the resume to warrant being ranked ahead of Matyushenko. Yet. Gustafsson is a serious talent who will be in the top five of the division two years from now. And at that time, I am going to be absolutely clamoring for Davis-Gustafsson II. Next fight: Vladimir Matyushenko

16.) Matt Hamill - I don't think there's a chance in hell that Matt Hamill will ever climb higher on this list. He's a good fighter, but nothing special. He beats the guys he's supposed to, and has a fantastic backstory, but he's peaked. He's had a career to be proud of to this point, for sure. Next fight: TBA

17.) Tito Ortiz - One week ago, I sure as hell didn't think Ortiz would be in my top 25. Or top 100. Or top 250. But here he is. One victory every five years and he's in the top 25. But I have to say, his win over Ryan Bader was the best moment of 2011, and I've been nothing but critical of Ortiz for several years now. Anyone who couldn't feel good for the guy in the moments after he submitted Bader must look forward to stealing roast beast from Cindy Lou Who every December. Next fight: TBA

18.) Ryan Bader - Bader is going to go down in MMA history as the guy who let Tito Ortiz back into the conversation (which I think is about 1 step behind being 'in the mix,' but is a step ahead of being 'in line'). There's no shame in getting beaten by Jon Jones, and there's no shame in getting caught with a short right like he was against Ortiz. But a two losses in a row means Bader's one more loss away from having a meeting with Mark Pavelich, and there ain't no UFC fighter who ever wants to have that meeting. Next fight: TBA

19.) Roger Gracie - If you believe in tiers in rankings, Gracie is the last of a group, starting at #12 with Feijao, because there's a steep drop of fin the division between Gracie and the next group below him. Gracie has been nothing but dominant in his brief professional career, and a fight with the relatively inexperienced King Mo Lawal in September is perfect matchmaking. My heart broke a little when this fight got moved from the July 30 card which I will be attending. Next fight: Muhammed Lawal, September 10.

20.) Keith Jardine - Yikes. Next fight: TBA

21.) Stephan Bonnar - Bonnar's on a bit of a heater right now, and he was wise enough to pull out of his fight with Karlos Vemola before running into Vemola's pocket aces. Next fight: TBA

22.) Marcos Rogerio de Lima - Proof that there is in fact 'business as usual' in San Jose, the top prospect in the world at 205 signed with Strikeforce rather than with the UFC. and this signing occurred after the acquisition of Strikeforce. Pezao hasn't fought since handling the fallen angel of MMA Paulo Filho last October. Count on Pezao storming his way to the top of Strikeforce's 205 pound division very quickly. Next fight: TBA

23.) Ovince St. Preux - Another good prospect for Strikeforce's 205 light heavyweight division, OSP opened some eyes by defeating Antwain Britt and Benji Radach in a fifteen day stretch at the end of 2010. He then followed that up by winning yet another Strikeforce fight five weeks later. Let me tell you right now, his upcoming fight with Joe Cason on the next Challengers card is a must see fight. Cason's training at Duke Roufus' gym in Milwaukee, and he is going to be Duke's next star, just wait. OSP might be a bit much for the raw Cason at this point in his career, but I'm telling you, this fight is going to bloody fabulous. Next fight: Joe Cason, July 22

24.) Krzysztof Soszynski - Best kimura in the division? Maybe so. It's rare to see a bad Soszynski fight, so he's got that going for him. And, um, that Brian Stann victory looks better in retrospect, dontchathink? Next fight: TBA

25.) Randy Couture - Look, I know he's retired, and didn't exactly go out with a bang. Well, he sort of went out with a bang, but you know what I mean. And yeah, he hadn't been on the winning side of a fight that he also won since the Gonzaga fight. But this is my list, and I like Couture, and I'm putting him on my list. Plus, it was either Couture or rank Ryan Jimmo, and, well, c'mon son. Next fight: None, retired.

Follow me on Twitter, even though Twitter kills brain cells: @MMATorchRich

Source: http://www.mmatorch.com/artman2/publish/richhansen/article_9821.shtml

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